Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil
- ISBN-10
- 1475571046
- ISBN-13
- 9781475571042
- Category
- Business & Economics
- Pages
- 28
- Language
- English
- Published
- 2017-01-24
- Publisher
- International Monetary Fund
- Authors
- Mr.Troy D Matheson, Mr.Ivo Krznar
Description
This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
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