Calculating Catastrophe
- ISBN-10
- 1848168934
- ISBN-13
- 9781848168930
- Category
- Technology & Engineering
- Pages
- 368
- Language
- English
- Published
- 2011-06-20
- Publisher
- World Scientific
- Author
- Gordon Woo
Description
Watch a video interview with Gordon Woo Book Launch of Calculating Catastrophe Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets. The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk. Contents:Natural Hazards:Causation and AssociationExtra-Terrestrial HazardsMeteorological HazardsGeological HazardsGeomorphic HazardsHydrological HazardsSocietal Hazards:Political ViolenceInfectious Disease PandemicsIndustrial and Transportation AccidentsFraud CatastropheA Sense of Scale:Size Scales of Natural HazardsHazard Spatial ScalesThe Human Disaster TollModels of a Fractal WorldA Measure of Uncertainty:The Concept of ProbabilityThe Meaning of UncertaintyAleatory and Epistemic UncertaintyProbability AmbiguityThe Weighing of EvidenceA Matter of Time:Temporal Models of HazardsLong-Term Data RecordsStatistics of ExtremesCatastrophe Complexity:Emergent CatastrophesFinancial CrashesAncillary HazardsTerrorism:A Thinking Man's GameDefeating Terrorist NetworksCounter-RadicalizationForecasting:Earthquake ForecastingVerificationRiver Flows and Sea WavesAccelerating Approach to CriticalityEvidence-Based DiagnosisDisaster Warning:Decision in the BalanceEvacuationThe Wisdom of ExpertsDisaster Scenarios:Scenario SimulationFootprints and VulnerabilityFermi ProblemsCatastrophe Cover:Probable Maximum LossCoherent Risk MeasuresThe Samaritan's DilemmaCatastrophe Risk Securitization:Catastrophe BondsThe Price of InnovationRisk Horizons:Ecological CatastropheClimate ChangeWar and Conflict Resolution Readership: Applied mathematicians, earth and atmospheric scientists, civil engineers, geographers, economists and general public. Keywords:Catastrophe;Calculating;Mathematics;DisasterKey Features:Synoptic assessment of catastrophe events of all typesInter-comparison of different hazardsAttention to quantitative risk management issuesReviews:“Gordon Woo's book The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes is a modern classic for anyone interested in risk analysis, securitization and emergency response. The publication of this timely update is very welcome, with a wider decision theoretic perspective being maintained throughout. This makes the book more accessible to and more timely for the people who need it most, those on the policy hot seats.”Prof Roger Cooke Chauncey Starr Chair for Risk Analysis Resources for the Future, Washington, DC “With his trademark gift for illustrating key concepts with colorful anecdotes, Dr. Woo has crafted a survey of catastrophe science that is both informative and a pleasure to read.”Prof George Zanjani AAMGA Distinguished Chair in Risk Management and Insurance Georgia State University “It is absolutely excellent and I am thoroughly enjoying it … I am recommending it to everyone I see.”Sir John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science, UK “The book is very accessible — it can be read as light reading, focusing on the examples — or as a deeper introduction to the issues, the mathemtics of the phenomena, and the methodologies which exist for coping with them. It is certainly a book which kept me gripped to the end.”David J Hand Imperial College London, UK “It is absolutely crucial for our students.”Prof Christine Wamsler Lund University, Sweden “Woo has a specialist audience in mind, but running through Calculating Catastrophe is a lesson for novice and initiate alike. This concerns how and why modern societies have such difficulty dealing with the biggest questions they face, from climate change and terrorism to financial crisis. The author — whose business card for the modelling company RMS reads: 'Dr Gordon Woo, Catastrophist' — underlines time and again the uncertainty that always remains in managing risk.”Financial Times “Your excellent book will be a standard reference text in the coming years.”Prof Rohan Gunaratna Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research Nanyang Technological University, Singapore “A fascinating survey of catastrophe science that covers a wide range of natural and man-made risks, in an attempt to provide broader knowledge and deeper understanding about the different risks involved. The author is defined to be 'a catastrophist with Risk Management Solutions', and this volume is an updated version of his earlier book The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. The book is full of challenging material that would benefit from being analysed in greater detail within strategic, and/or futures, tools and techniques in order to make its contents more managerially accessible.”Long Range Planning (LRP) “… this is a book for a broad audience about facts and principles. The erudition and literacy of the author are amazing and an intellectual pleasure to read.”The European Mathematical Society “Although the subject matter is dark, this is an optimistic book. Woo believes in the power of mathematics to explain the natural world and even to shine a little light into the darker corners of human affairs.”The Mathematical Intelligencer “Gordon Woo has written a very user-friendly book. He is careful with the unknown risks and uncertainties as well — the error bars.”The Observer
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