The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120
- ISBN-10
- 8778383811
- ISBN-13
- 9788778383815
- Category
- Social Science / Sociology / General
- Pages
- 124
- Language
- English
- Published
- 1998
- Publisher
- University Press of Southern Denmark
- Authors
- James W. Vaupel, A. Roger Thatcher, Väinö Kannisto
Description
The purpose of this monograph is to see whether new data make it possible to re-assess the relative merits of various contending models for the way in which the probability of dying changes with age, at least in the range of ages from 80 to 120. Thirteen countries have a sufficiently long run of reliable data to be useful for the specialised purposes of the present analysis : Austria, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Germany (West), Iceland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. These countries include almost 40 million persons who reached age 80, and over 120'000 who reached age 100, during the period 1960-1990. The analysis covers over 32 million deaths at age 80and over this period. The results show that the Gompertz, Weibull, and Heligman & Pollard models give estimates of mortality which are far too high above age 100. The other three models studied - the logistic, Kannisto and quadriatic models - were all far closer to the observed values, and it is not easy to choose among them. Based on various theoretical and pragmatic considerations we conclude that the logistic model and its Kannisto approximation are the best of the six models. The analysis indicates that the probability of dying reaches a value between about 0.5 and 0.65, for both males and females, at age 120.
Get the book
Similar books
-
Childhood in Global Perspective
By Karen Wells... may be taken in by other family members or they may , as is increasingly the case in Africa , establish their own households , with the eldest children acting as heads of households ( Audemard and Vignikin 2006 ; Robson et al .
-
Understanding Human Behavior and the Social Environment
By Karen Kay Kirst-Ashman, Charles ZastrowIn this best-selling text BY social workers and FOR social workers, Charles Zastrow and Karen K. Kirst-Ashman, nationally prominent social work educators and authors, guide studetns in assessing and evaluating how individuals function ...
-
Understanding Human Behavior and the Social Environment
By Karen Kay Kirst-Ashman, Charles ZastrowKiev , A. ( 1980 , September ) . The courage to live . Cosmopolitan , pp . 301-308 . Kim , N. , Stanton , B. , Li , X. , Dickersin , K. , & Galbraith , J. ( 1997 ) . Effectiveness of the 40 adolescent AIDS - risk reduction interventions ...
-
Mapping the Social Landscape: Readings in Sociology
By Susan J. FergusonCharrière , H. 1969. Papillon . Robert Lafont . ... 6 NOT OUR KIND OF GIRL ELAINE BELL KAPLAN Social research is concerned with the definition and assessment of social phenomena . Many social concepts such as teen pregnancy are ...
-
淡定的爱, 优雅的活
By （美）卡耐基, 张艾佳行走世间，唯有淡定不破：遇事不慌、遇人不躁，拥有淡定、优雅的心，你，就可以重生！——美国心灵教父戴尔 ...
-
Feminism and the Legacy of Revolution: Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chiapas
By Karen KampwirthBooth, John. 1985. The End and the Beginning: The Nicaraguan Revolution. Boulder: Westview. Booth, John, and Thomas W. Walker. 1989. Understanding Central America. Boulder: Westview Borge, Tomás. 1984. Carlos, the Dawn Ls No Longer ...
-
Social Structure and Law: Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives
By William M. EvanReaders will profit from studying this volume which sets forth a rationale for theoretical and empirical contributions to the sociology of law.
-
Race-ing Justice, En-gendering Power: Essays on Anita Hill, Clarence Thomas, and the Construction of Social Reality
By Nell Irvin Painter, Homi K. Bhabha, Kimberlé CrenshawAs I wrote in a recent tribute to Justice Marshall: There appears to be a deliberate retrenchment by a majority of the current Supreme Court on many basic issues of human rights that Thurgood Marshall advocated and that the Warren and ...
-
The Civilizing Process
By Norbert EliasThe Civilizing Process
-
Culture of Complaint: The Fraying of America
By Robert HughesCriticizes Pat Buchanan, Pat Robertson, Jessie Helms, and Ronald Reagan, political correctness, academic obsessions with theory, the art world, American infrastructure, and other targets