For a state to be at risk of oil coercion, it must have some degree of baseline vulnerability. I hypothesize that three variables determine a state's vulnerability to oil coercion. The first is its degree of dependence on foreign sources of oil. For oil coercion to be effective, the target must depend heavily on foreign sources of petroleum. Second, the target's geography matters greatly, because it affects a coercer's ability to block the flow of oil. Island states are particularly susceptible to military blockade. The third variable is the country's relative power, which determines whether or not the state can protect its supply lines.